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The air freight market appears to be moving out of its acute crisis phase, with capacity recovering and fears of a near-term jet fuel shortage receding, although rates remain far above pre-conflict levels and tradelanes continue to shift. After weeks of steep increases following the escalation of the Middle East conflict in late February, the latest TAC Index data suggests the market has started to cool. The global Baltic Air Freight Index fell 4.9% in the week to 18 May, although it remained 30.4% higher year on year. TAC said the fall followed a short-term drop in jet fuel prices, by about 10% in early May, though prices remain roughly 80% higher than a year ago. Source: IATA Jet Fuel Monitor Freightos data points to the same trend: the panic phase has passed, but pricing has not normalised. Its global air index has continued to trend well above pre-crisis levels, while the Southern Asia-Europe lane, which was around $2.40/kg before the conflict, surged above $5/kg in April and has since eased only partially, settling around the low-to-mid $4/kg range by 20 May. Freightos Terminal Source: Freightos Terminal Public fuel surcharge data from Hong Kong also indicates the market is beginning to cool. Cathay Cargo’s long-haul fuel surcharge fell from HK$16.9/kg for the first half of May to HK$13.5/kg for the second half of the month, a reduction of about 20% in two weeks. DHL’s Hong Kong cargo fuel surcharge mechanism has shown a similar trend, with rates easing steadily from April peaks. However, both remain dramatically above pre-crisis levels seen earlier this year. The result is a market that is no longer spiralling upward, but has clearly found a new, elevated pricing floor. Capacity data from Rotate supports that picture. Freighter capacity grew 3% month on month in April versus March, reversing the previous month’s 2% decline. Week on week, however, growth slowed to 2%, down from 8% the previous week, suggesting airlines are restoring lift cautiously rather than flooding the market with capacity. Source: Rotate But the recovery is uneven and increasingly shaped by changing tradelanes. Rotate’s data showed particularly strong month-on-month growth onAsia-Middle East, up 25%, and Europe-Middle East, up 16%, as the Gulf carriers get back to work. Source: Rotate Many other carriers are still avoiding the Middle East however. Cargolux CEO Richard Forson said the carrier had not changed its overall network strategy, but had removed most Middle East stops because of airspace and security concerns, retaining only Muscat. But he also said global trade patterns were continuing to shift, with more production moving into South-east Asia and India. “Tradelanes are shifting,” he said, adding that Asia-Europe, Asia-Middle East and Europe-North America remained among the strongest corridors. The shift is being reinforced by the nature of cargo demand. Mr Forson said electronics, AI-related server infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, and ecommerce were all supporting the market. “There’s a lot of electronics being flown… with the data centres being set up to facilitate AI development,” he said. That demand has helped prevent a collapse in rates even as operational conditions improved. Seasonal Mother’s Day flower shipments from Latin America also helped absorb freighter capacity this month, particularly on Europe and North America lanes. The latest TAC figures suggest some emergency pressure is now easing. Rates out of Hong Kong, India, and Korea all declined week on week, while Europe-US and Europe-Gulf markets also softened. However, pricing remains historically high, with Heathrow outbound rates, for example, still more than 40% above last year. The market is, therefore, not returning to normal so much as adapting to a new environment. Refineries in Europe, the US, and West Africa have shifted output towards aviation fuel, while airlines have rerouted networks, cut weaker services and concentrated capacity on higher-yield corridors. At the same time, carriers appear unusually disciplined on capacity deployment, helping prevent a rapid collapse in pricing. While Mr Forson had warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could still create fuel shortages and wider economic damage, he added that the immediate cargo market remained resilient, with “fairly healthy” demand and “fairly robust” yields. In short, any feared further collapse in air freight availability has not materialised. But neither has the market returned to pre-crisis conditions. Instead, the industry appears to have repriced geopolitical risk permanently into the system. Listen to our recent podcast with Container Trades Statistics to hear a deep dive into the Q1 ocean freight dynamics!

First-quarter earnings for Israeli liner Zim plummeted more than 129% year on year, and it recorded a net loss of $86m, as efforts to get its merger deal with Hapag-Lloyd over the line continue, despite an alternative late-in-the-day offer. After net income of $296m just 12 months ago, turbulence in the Israeli carrier’s sphere of operations was always likely to prompt a decline in performance, shown by the 8% year-on-year dip in volumes, to 866,000 teu, and 30% drop in revenue, to $1.4bn. Outgoing chief executive, and one-time would-be buyer, Eli Glickman said: “The conflict in the Persian Gulf sparked a sharp increase and significant volatility in bunkering costs. “While the impact on Q1 results was minimal, we expect a more meaningful effect in the second quarter, before our actions to offset these costs, including increased freight rates and bunker-specific surcharges, begin to take hold. “Zim is likely to see incremental benefits from our early adoption of LNG technology and long-term agreements with Shell securing LNG supply.” Its latest results followed news that entrepreneur Haim Sakal, backed by Israeli investors, had tabled an all-cash offer for the carrier of $4.5bn, $300m higher than the bid from Hapag-Lloyd. Reports indicate that not only has Mr Sakal confirmed that both Zim’s fleet and operational headquarters would remain in Israel, his offer includes an employee bonus package believed to be in the region of $250m. However,Loadstar’s Premium’sAle Pasetti pushed back on chances that Mr Sakal’s offer could unseat that of Hapag-Lloyd, noting that the German carrier had secured 97% of shareholder votes and was binding. But he cautioned: “Neither [offer] has a chance to go through, judging by the current share price at nearly 30% discount to Hapag’s cash offer”. Perhaps seeking to assuage the prospective buyer, Mr Glickman noted that on its main trades, Zim had “recently observed a positive change” that had resulted in both the rates and demand situation improving, with expectations that second half financials could be much improved. He added: “In parallel, we completed annual contract negotiations, which went into effect on 1 May, maintaining similar contracted volumes to last year with approximately 65% of our transpacific volume exposed to spot rates.” Listen now for a data-rich deep dive into the volatility redefining global shipping in 2026

Key takeaway: CORCA clears the House 348-60 while new data reveals the industry’s most uncomfortable truth: half of all freight theft now comes from carriers that passed every vetting check. This is a follow-up to yesterday’s ’Alert to shippers…’ by The Loadstar… The US freight industry got its first serious piece of anti-theft legislation last week. The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (CORCA) sailed through the House on 12 May with 348 votes against 60, a comfortable margin, cosponsored ...

Shippers are adapting to create “tariff-optimised” supply chains, with some tactics set to cement. A recent report by supply chain software company Infios highlighted two waves of post-tariff response. While wave one, from May-June 2025, was characterised by “pure reaction”, companies rushing to move volumes through whatever corridors looked most advantageous; the second wave, spanning July–December 2025 into 2026, has seen “structural adaptation”. “Once the initial shock passed, a different picture emerged. Companies stopped reacting and started rebuilding. The changes that came out of this wave are the ones with real long-term significance,” said Infios. “China’s loss of origin share didn’t reverse. Down 2.8 percentage points across the full period, this was a structural shift, not a temporary detour like the early USMCA surge,” the report added. Indeed, Nigel Pusey, CEO of Container Trades Statistics, toldThe Loadstar Podcastthat North America was the only region to record an import decline in Q1 26, down 3.8% compared with Q1 25. “The loss from China has now been completely offset by South-east Asia, which is virtually compensating for that in terms of North American import volumes,” said Mr Pusey. “I think this has been cemented-in for the short to medium term. Not much is going to change because they’ve got a solid supply, it’s not being affected by tariffs. Why keep changing just because the tariff and a geopolitical trade discussion changes? You’ve got a solution, and if it works, don’t break it,” he explained. “They are not cemented in stone for ever, but this one is here for the medium term, in my view.” But according to the report, aside from sourcing decisions, one of the biggest responses to the tariff shock was about where companies stored goods once they arrived. “Bonded warehouses went from a niche tool used by a handful of industries to a mainstream strategy almost overnight. Warehouse and withdrawal entries jumped from around 10% of observed entries in 2024 to 16% right after tariffs hit. And the growth actually accelerated in the second half of the period, which tells us this wasn’t reactive. Companies were getting smarter about it.“ Infios explained that bonded warehousing offered a “critical pressure release valve” that deferred duty payment, protected against mid-course policy changes, and offered selective withdrawal strategies. “Unlike wave one behaviours that peaked and faded, this shift reflected a sustained operational redesign rather than a temporary response.” The report flagged certain capabilities as “essential to winning in the tariff-optimised world”. These include: tariff modelling and scenario planning across different lanes; intelligent classification and origin management; the ability to pivot between ocean, truck, and air, based on tariff exposure, lead time and risk; warehouse entry and withdrawal optimisation; and automated compliance orchestration. “These aren’t nice-to-haves; they’re the foundation of competitive supply chain execution for the next decade,” urged Infios. Listen to the latest Loadstar Podcast with Container Trades Statistics for a data-rich discussion of Q1!

Container shipping through the Northern Sea Route may only show profits after 2040 – due to draught limits that prevent large vessels being deployed. This is the assessment of a Korea Maritime Institute (KMI) feasibility study, commissioned by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, which on Monday approved local ro-pax ferry operator Panstar Line to pilot a container shipping voyage through the NSR in September. Panstar owns no containerships, so government agencies are expected to help it charter a 3,000 teu box ship for the Busan-Rotterdam service. Response to operating the pilot scheme was dismal, with Panstar the sole applicant. South Korea’s flagship carrier, HMM, showed indifference, as it had arrived at the same conclusion as the KMI. Institute academics assessed that, while the economic viability of commercial operations on the Arctic route would be lower than that of conventional routes, passing through the Suez Canal, it would gradually increase in the long term. This is because global warming is expected to intensify by 2040, melting more Arctic ice and making the area more accessible to larger ships that offer more economy of scale. It has been more than a decade since a South Korean company last attempted a voyage through the NSR. In October 2013, Hyundai Motor’s shipping unit, Hyundai Glovis, used chartered icebreaking tankerStena Polaristo transport naphtha from Russia’s Ust-Luga port to South Korea’s Gwangyang port. China already had a head start to container shipping via the Arctic – Yangpu Newnew Shipping and Safetrans being the most frequent NSR users. South Korean president Lee Jae-myung has pledged to strengthen the country’s maritime capabilities and he sees Arctic shipping as an avenue to more business for domestic shipping companies and shipbuilders. The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries plans to develop business models to revitalise commercial operations by accumulating data through pilot operations on the Arctic route to dispel industry concerns. The ministry said: “The economic feasibility, compared to the actual costs incurred by shipping companies, will be revealed during the trial operation this September. “We plan to continue the trial operation regularly every year and investigate how the overall cost and profit structure changes by diversifying conditions such as vessels, cargo, and operating periods.” Listen now for a data-rich deep dive into the volatility redefining global shipping in 2026

What is going on in Cuba? It is a question no doubt being asked across the world as the drumbeats for yet another Trump-induced foreign invasion grow louder. And if it is anything like his foray into the Persian Gulf, it is unlikely to mitigate the sheer chaos in global supply chains at present. Of course, it goes without saying that the present state of play in the Caribbean island is untenable – an economic siege has laid waste to a country that less than a decade ago was beginning to open up to the world following years of sanctions. That opening, which followed the willingness of the Obama administration to speak to the Castros, did not last long. As with most of Obama’s achievements, as swiftly as they had been implemented, they were reversed by President Trump during his first term. Since then, a sanctions regime has been starving Cubans of food and external support beyond their reliable, decade-long partnerships. That Venezuela was one of those was not a good omen – the US went in and unilaterally toppled President Maduro, hauling him off blindfolded and in leg irons. Indeed, the sanctions against the island only ramped up. But it was sanctions introduced at the start of this month that may prove decisive – decisiveness contained in their ambiguity. This weekThe Loadstarreported that Hapag-Lloyd, responsible for 60% of Cuba’s containerised volumes, would suspend services to the country. CMA CGM followed. Tellingly, the logic behind that was somewhat oblique. Hapag-Lloyd said it was “currently assessing the situation to determine whether, and under which conditions, services to and from Cuba may continue in the future”. That lack of clarity has leftThe Loadstarguessing as to the logic of the suspension. Taking a stab in the dark, it may be a particular provision within the US sanctions that left the carriers sweating. It reads: “Sec. 2. Sanctionable conduct. (a) All property and interests in property that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within the possession or control of any United States persons of the following persons are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in… “…to have materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to, orin support of, the government of Cubaor any person whose property or interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order.” What would constitute support in the Trump administration’s eyes? Providing food to a desperate population? Provision of medical supplies to a desperate population? Another question is whether the carriers pulled their services over fears that war is coming to the Caribbean island. Efforts to find someone with expertise on the matter have, thus far, been in vain – if you’re reading this and have expertise on Cuban supply chains, please get in touch. Indeed, possible points of contact have declined to comment over fears that even that could land them in trouble. So, what is going on in Cuba? Listen now for a data-rich deep dive into the volatility redefining global shipping in 2026

Like a rocket, JB Hunt stock (JBHT) has added about 30 bucks to its value per share since Q1 26 numbers were disclosed. Now trading at $256.5, one all-time high after another in the past four weeks – here comes a worthy reminder for the Stupid One (me, indeed*). (*I expected more downside than upside only four weeks ago on the interims, if you recall) About +14% of added value later… check: projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, according to S&P ...

The barrage of tariffs unleashed by the US government, and the gyrations around legal challenges to impose them, have created disruption and uncertainty that remains an existential threat to small and mid-sized businesses. They are also causing a transformation of supply chain strategies that calls for new priorities and capabilities, according to Infios, a provider of intelligent supply chain execution solutions. A survey of 500 US SMEs, conducted by digital forwarder-cum-marketplace Ship4wd in April, concludes that “tariffs have become the defining challenge of the current trade environment for US small businesses”. Nearly all (96%) of those surveyed said tariffs had a direct negative impact on their shipping, sourcing or supply chain last year, and identified tariffs as their primary concern for 2026 – 31% of them expecting a “significant-to-devastating impact”. Don Mabry, SVP global trade at Infios, noted that in many cases importers were faced with stacked tariffs, many at elevated levels not seen before. Effective duty rates have risen 25% to 80%, which magnifies the impact of any mistake in entry filings, especially the HTS classification. A study of more than a million aggregated US customs entry data led Infios to the conclusion that, beyond their impact on businesses and supply chains, tariffs have morphed into a factor in procurement and supply chain strategy and in transport choices. One aspect of this is the prominence of bonded warehousing in importers’ strategies. Warehouse and withdrawal entries jumped from around 10% of observed entries in 2024, to 16% right after tariffs hit, Infios found. Washington’s tariff offensive also triggered changes in the use of transport modes. Use of airfreight rose 12%, whereas ocean transport slid 10%-12%. While some other shifts triggered by the tariffs proved transient (such as new trade corridors or a brief push to boost USMCA sourcing), the modal shift and the use of bonded warehousing have not been reversed and remain in the ascent, signalling that mode choice is now used as policy-risk insurance, not just cost optimisation, Infios noted. And the change wrought by tariffs goes beyond individual elements of supply chain management, Mr Mabry stressed. “What we’re seeing isn’t just a shift in sourcing or supplier mix, it’s a fundamental change in how trade is executed,” he explained. “Tariffs have introduced a level of volatility that companies can no longer manage with periodic adjustments or manual processes.” One stark illustration of this is the complexity of HTS classification, which has doubled, from six to 12 elements, and amplified by the magnitude of tariffs – especially if they are stacked. “Manual processes start to break down,” he said, adding that legacy systems were ill-suited to deal with the complexities now involved. He pointed to transport management systems, which had no handle on tariffs According to Infios, tariffs have transformed supply chain execution from a linear process into an adaptive system. This requires greater flexibility in order to respond more effectively as complexity increases, and it calls for optionality, where companies have multiple options in the event of a looming tariff change or other disruption. “Optionality is the new efficiency,” Mr Mabry said. To make the transformation, six capabilities are essential, according to Infios: companies must be able to perform dynamic tariff modelling; they need intelligent classification and origin management; multimodal execution decisioning; warehouse entry and withdrawal optimisation; route and corridor intelligence; and automated compliance orchestration. To begin with, Mr Mabry named three aspects on which to focus: classification; bonded warehousing; and scenario modelling. Some elements, notably route and corridor intelligence, call for collaboration with supply chain providers. In the main, though, Mr Mabry does see a growing need for AI – both generative and agentic variants. “This is not a trend, it is a necessity,” he said. Listen now for a data-rich deep dive into the volatility redefining global shipping in 2026