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This week onNews in Brief, Charlotte Goldstone and her guests break down the latest developments shaping the freight and logistics market. First, Xeneta senior market analyst Destine Ozuygur joins the podcast to unpack the ongoing Middle East conflict and what the latest developments around the Strait of Hormuz could mean for global supply chains. The discussion explores growing speculation around an early Asia-Europe peak season, concerns over oil prices and blank sailings, carrier Q1 earnings, and the latest movements in ocean freight spot rates. Later in the episode,The Loadstar’s Alex Lennane discusses one of the week’s biggest industry stories: DSV’s confirmation that CargoWise will be replaced as the backbone of its operations by its in-house Tango and Star platforms. Alex also explains the latest leadership changes at Emirates Group, reactions from Cargolux to the Hormuz crisis, and how current disruption is influencing air cargo rates and capacity. Plus, a roundup of what caught readers’ attention onLoadstar Premiumthis week. Watch the episode on YouTube and subscribe so you never miss an episode! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwZnZErOQ78 Click here to receive an email notification every time we release a podcast.

The US tariffs reinforced a trend among cargo owners to keep inventory levels low and replenish quickly – a strategy that relies on readily available and cheap truck capacity, so the rapid rise in haulage rates and tender rejections is forcing a re-evaluation. The Q1 Distribution and Fulfilment Index, produced by ITS Logistics, describes the period as “a stress test for the velocity thesis”. Its authors concluded: “The discipline of lean inventory, downstream positioning, and replenishment-over-accumulation survived the quarter, but the assumption underpinning it – abundant and cheap transportation – collapsed in March.” They noted that the cost of holding and moving inventory had risen sharply, with both warehousing and transport costs up. While warehousing capacity tightened, the main culprit has been the rapid surge in trucking costs. Truckload capacity continues to tighten as regulatory moves decimate the driver pool, while cost pressure forces struggling operators out of the market, and the resulting rise in rates has been turbo-charged by the impact of exploding fuel costs. And relief is not in sight. Trucking rates will not retreat before the end of this year, warned Satish Jindel, founder and president of SJ Consulting. According to ITS, warehousing capacity contracted in the first quarter, with national vacancy rates at 7.51% and rent growth accelerating to 1.3%. This is not likely to ease, as the warehouse construction pipeline is at its tightest in nearly a decade. Still, this is a minor headwind compared to the trucking situation. “The cost of moving inventory faster rose in a step-change, and the economic equation between carrying cost and transportation cost narrowed sharply. For most categories, carrying cost still exceeds transportation cost on a marginal unit, particularly given tariff-elevated landed costs. But the gap compressed, and for fuel-intensive long-haul categories, the comparison has inverted,” ITS found. Ryan Martin, ITS president of distribution and fulfilment, said the first quarter proved that lean inventory strategies could hold under pressure, but warned that their strength hinged on the underlying replenishment infrastructure. “Firms that entered Q1 with functional downstream space and multi-carrier redundancy preserved service at manageable cost. Those that relied on spot freight to compensate for thin inventory paid the price,” he explained. “The defining question for Q2 is not whether to restock, but whether logistics networks can absorb the fuel and capacity shock without service degradation – and which operators have the functional space, laboir depth, and carrier diversity to do so,” the ITS report concluded. Mr Martin reported that some of his customers were increasing inventory levels, and others attempting to keep them low while trying to meet fill rates from their clients. He expects to see more action as the realisation sinks in that the transport cycle has undergone a fundamental shift. “I think it’s finally starting to resonate with shippers, but it won’t fully, until they have loads sitting and have to pay a premium to get them moving, which is starting to happen,” he said. “At some point, the JIT environment goes out the window when transportation costs increase, as they are. This is a very typical cycle that has been played out many times over the years,” he said. “Shippers will start to push for slower/cheaper modes of transportation which will increase their inventory levels to offset.” According to Todd Larsen, ITS SVP of enterprise sales, the market has already passed some milestones that augur shifts in shipper behaviour. “The first thing to watch is tender rejections holding above 10% to 12%. Once that happens, routing guides start falling apart and contracted capacity gets a lot less dependable. We’re above 13% OTRI right now, and it’s been sustained,” he noted. “The second is spot rates getting close to, or moving above, contract rates. When carriers can make more money on the spot market, they’ll naturally move toward it. That’s where shippers start seeing cracks in networks they thought were locked-in. We’re already seeing spot running well above contract on a lot of high-volume lanes,” he noted. “The third is capacity overall. New carrier authorities are down 27% year on year, carrier exits are still climbing, and spot load posts were up around 70% year on year in Q1. Put all of that together and this feels a lot more structural than cyclical. The real shift happens when shippers stop talking about rates and start talking about loads sitting. We’re starting to hear more of that already,” he said. Mr Jindel said shippers typically tried to negotiate a better discount when faced with increased trucking charges, but this tactic is doomed in the present market. “The only way to manage that cost and control spend is to be more efficient and smarter, to get better utilisation. If they can’t figure out how to do it, there are people who can help them,” he said. “Thirty percent of truckload capacity every day is wasted. Think what that does to the cost of trucking.”

Key takeaway: The Supreme Court’s 9-0 ruling lifts the FAAAA preemption shield from freight brokers, but a plaintiff’s lawyer explains why it may matter far less in practice than the industry’s reaction suggests. The freight brokerage industry is treating Thursday’s Supreme Court ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II like an extinction-level event. The court ruled unanimously that freight brokers can be sued under state negligence law for hiring unsafe motor carriers, a decision that strips the trucking industry’s largest middlemen ...

Container spot rates on the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades posted double-digit increases this week on the back of new FAK rate levels, peak season surcharges, and tighter capacity. This week’s World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry recorded an 11% week-on-week increase on the Shanghai-Rotterdam leg, to end at $2,413 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa route was up 20% on the previous week, to finish $3,701 per 40ft. “The Asia-Europe peak season is expected to start earlier than usual, as higher cargo bookings, tight vessel space, and disruptions linked to the US/Israel-Iran conflict are prompting shippers to move cargo earlier. “As demand is rebounding, Drewry expects rates to increase further in the coming week,” the analyst said. Carriers are certainly preparing to introduce more price rises in a couple of weeks, with MSC notifying customers this week of new FAK (freight all kinds) rates of $4,700 per 40ft to North Europe and $5,500 for both East and West Mediterranean destinations on 1 June. However, market reaction was mixed on how successful further increases will be. One UK forwarder toldThe Loadstarthey “have been hearing the carriers are expecting a peak season – some are talking June, some July”. However, they questioned whether demand could support higher spot rates. “All carriers are looking for GRIs from mid-May. We have noticed an uplift in volumes, however nothing significant for the current levels of GRI to stick at these initial published levels, and I expect reductions,” one said, adding that threats of rollovers at Asian loading ports had yet to materialise. “We have seen rolling lists issued, but only on the smaller Premier Alliance vessels heading into Southampton, and we have not experienced issues with getting the shipments loaded on board.” However, capacity on both trades this week was down 5% on last week, according to data from freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. According to Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand, while Asia-Europe spot rates continue to hover at levels similar to the outbreak of the Iran conflict, transpacific spot rates are up 50% on pre-war levels, which he described as a “plateau”, and argued they would decline as the annual contracting season on the trade draws to a close. However, this week’s WCI shows transpacific spot rates also showing strong gains, with its Shanghai-Los Angeles route up 10% week on week, to $3,357 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York leg increased 14%, to $4,252 per 40ft, which Drewry attributed to “the implementation of emergency fuel and peak season surcharges by carriers”, while also keeping capacity in check – seven blanked sailings have been announced on the transpacific next week. Mr Sand said: “One factor behind the short-term market plateau on the transpacific is US shippers delaying signing new long-term contracts, due to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East crisis and the risk of locking-in rates for the next 12 months at a higher level than necessary. “For every delayed contract, more containers must be moved on the spot market, and carriers will charge a premium – but for shippers, the short-term pain is worth it if they ultimately secure lower long-term rates in the coming weeks. “As new long-term contracts are finalised and come into force, volumes will shift back to contracted rates and that should translate into a softening of the short-term market. “This will be gradual softening rather than a dramatic fall off a cliff edge to pre-conflict levels, particularly ahead of the traditional peak season build-up later in the summer,” he added.

China is stepping up its crackdown on container transport service providers for regulatory breaches, as the industry navigates an increasingly volatile trade environment. China’s Ministry of Transport (MoT) has issued notices imposing fines on several major container lines and domestic NVOs that have allegedly engaged in freight rate filing violations. Liners facing the heat include CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Evergreen, Wan Hai and Emirates Shipping. The MoT is said to have found discrepancies between actual freight rates and filed rates, adding that it had held talks with companies before coming down hard on them “to strengthen the regulation of international container liner shipping and non-vessel operating common carrier markets, and enhance public oversight, in accordance with the administrative penalty law”. It added: “…shipping companies and NVOCC operators are requested to take this as a warning, improve their freight rate filing systems, ensure accountability, and earnestly fulfil their freight rate filing obligations.” The authority also warned that regulatory scrutiny would be further intensified. The ministry said it had carried out inspections at the ports of Guangzhou, Qingdao, and Ningbo between August and November last year before moving ahead with the punitive action. Chinese regulatory crackdowns on carriers are nothing new. In 2017, more than a dozen container lines faced the crack of the MoT whip for failing to be transparent on freight rate quotes. And in the aftermath of the Middle East war this year, the ministry warned ocean carriers against “opportunistic pricing”, as capacity and port connectivity became a challenge for shippers. Despite the regulatory whip, the Middle East supply chain crisis has seen carriers roll out a wave of surcharges on freight to the Persian Gulf. India, through its national maritime administrator the Directorate General of Shipping (DGS), has also come down on carriers, seeking transparency in logistics costs and warning against predatory pricing practices. “The DGS has received representations from various stakeholders in the export/import trade regarding the levy of multiple ancillary charges by shipping lines/carriers and their agents,” it said. “These charges are perceived to be non-transparent and opportunistic in nature, resulting in an escalation of transaction costs in the logistics chain and appearing to take undue advantage of the prevailing geopolitical tensions and war-like situation.” But questions remain on the effectiveness of that intervention, as hefty war-risk surcharges and other extra costs have found their way into shippers’ freight bills.

Carriers are already tightening container shipping capacity ahead of the peak season, with blanked sailings increasing and reports emerging of rolled cargo at some Far East origins. During a market update webinar, Freightos head of research Judah Levine said carriers were becoming more aggressive in capacity management, as they sought to defend freight rates against a backdrop of weak demand growth, elevated fuel costs, and continuing geopolitical disruption. “We are already now seeing carriers increase blanked sailings,” he said. “And there have been reports even of rolled containers in some origins in the Far East.” Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at Xeneta, toldThe Loadstar: “For blanked sailings, right now what we’re forecasting for June and July, is roughly on trend with what we’ve seen in previous years. “Of course, that can change, because we see more and more coming in at the last minute every year. “But April was crazy,” she added.“We saw, I think, a 37% increase year over year. So, in practical terms, they [carriers] are using blanks defensively and operationally.” Mr Levine noted that lines were reducing capacity “to get rates to where they like them”. Linerlytica reported that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd had amended their Gemini Cooperation agreement “to modify the timing of discussions regarding potential seasonal blank sailings”. While the carriers were authorised to blank sailings only during Chinese New Year or Golden Week holidays no later than 12 weeks prior to schedule, the revised agreement extends to cover Christmas, calendar new year “and/or other similar holiday periods”, and shortens the notice period to 6-8 weeks. Currently the Gemini Alliance has the lowest sailing cancellation rate of the four main alliances, 2.8% compared with 15.9% for MSC, 17.1% for the Premier Alliance and 19.9% for the Ocean Alliance, according to Linerlytica. It noted: “The move comes as Maersk’s ocean shipping earnings continue to deteriorate in the first quarter of 2026 and the Gemini partners continue to underperform its peers in terms of EBIT earning margins.” Mr Levine said carriers appeared to be seeing varying degrees of success in managing rates on different trades. The transpacific had seen meaningful increases, while Asia-Europe carriers were primarily focused on preventing rates from slipping. According to Freightos data cited by Mr Levine, transpacific spot rates have risen steadily since the start of the conflict. Asia-US west coast rates up around $1,000 per 40ft, to around $2,800, while east coast rates reached approximately $4,300 per 40ft. Asia-Europe pricing has been more stable, with rates to North Europe around $2,800 per 40ft and to the Mediterranean near $3,500. However, Mr Levine argued that even flat pricing represented a stronger market than would normally be expected during a low-demand period. “We are seeing fuel costs being passed on,” he said. Freightos data show that, during the previous low-demand period between peak season and Chinese New Year, Asia-Europe rates had fallen, to $1,700-$2,000 per 40ft. Current low-season levels remain significantly higher. But despite tighter capacity management, Mr Levine warned that peak season demand could ultimately disappoint carriers if inflation and higher energy prices continue to weigh on consumer spending. “There could be lower demand for freight,” he said, which would leave carriers “still facing those higher fuel surcharges”.

The highlight among containership newbuilding orders this week is six 15,900 teu vessels ONE is understood to have commissioned at South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries. The yard announced the order but did not disclose the customer’s identity, however, MB Shipbrokers named Japanese liner grouping Ocean Network Express. The Danish brokerage added: “The project further expands ONE’s growing portfolio of alternative-fuel tonnage across multiple yards.” The LNG dual-fuelled newbuildings will cost $203m each and be delivered by the end of 2029. It appears that Singapore-headquartered ONE, whose 2025 net profitplummeted 92%year on year, to $338m, has cautiously pared its newbuild plans from 22 ships to six. The original plan comprised six 13,000 teu vessels, with options for six more, and six at 15,000 teu, plus options for four more. ONE said it “does not comment on market speculation or third-party disclosures”. The carrier has a sombre outlook for container shipping this year and expects net profit to fall again, to $300m. Elsewhere, newbuilding orders continue to be concentrated on the feeder sector, highlighting the growth of regional trades and its aging fleet. John Su’s Athens-based Erasmus Shipinvest has commissioned four 2,400 teu ships at Taizhou Sanfu Ship Engineering, his third boxship order of the year. At $45m each, they will be delivered between 2028 and 2029, with options for two more. Last month, Erasmus ordered a 1,800 teu pair from CSSC Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding, with options for two more. Ningbo Ocean Shipping has ordered four 1,900 teu ships at Wuchang Shipyard, each estimated to cost around $32m, to be delivered in 2028. In January, the company exercised options for a 4,300 teu pair at Wenchong, at $57.5m each, after an initial order for four ships last August. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is now estimated to be at least 39% of the active fleet, prompting overcapacity concerns once deliveries start in 2028, and orders are not about to slow down. MB Shipbrokers said: “Several projects across different size segments remain under negotiation, and we expect to report further new orders in the coming weeks.”

The premature introduction in France of an EU-wide tax on small parcels from ecommerce marketplaces such as Shein, Temu, and AliExpress, has prompted a 65% drop in Vatry Airport’s cargo volumes in just ten weeks. And to stave off the threat of closure, a restructuring plan, which includes redundancies and a reduction in airport opening hours, has been drawn up. Seventeen of Vatry’s 97-strong workforce are to lose their jobs, operations will be scaled back from June, and the airport will be closed on Sundays and at 7pm on weekdays. The parcel tax will take effect across the whole bloc in July, part of a Customs reform programme.But, in a bid to defend their clothing industries and level the competitive playing field with the Chinese fast-fashion marketplaces, France brought the tax, of €2 per item, forward to March. By 3 March, customs declarations for small parcels at Paris CDG, the country’s biggest air cargo hub, had fallen 92%; Vatry handled 2,000 tonnes in January, which quickly fell to 800 tonnes post-tax, as goods shifted torivals like Liège, Schiphol, and Frankfurt, with parcels for France forwarded by truck. CDG was estimated to have lost around 50 freighter flights in the first week after the tax – Italy, which also brought the tax in early, suffered similar consequences and decided on a temporary postponement of the levy. France’s director-general of Customs, Florian Colas, told the National Assembly’s Economic Affairs Committee this week:“We have gone from approximately 500,000 [small parcel] declarations a day to around 50,000 today, which corresponds to [tax] revenue of€2.3m per month.”The French authorities had estimated the tax would generate revenue of€400m over a year. Jean-Marc Roze, president of the Marne public authority, which owns Vatry Airport, described the situation as “completely mad”. “This tax is ruining everything; pallets of small parcels from Shein or Temu are now being routed via Belgium to avoid it. Then there are longer truck journeys (to bring the goods to France), polluting the roads – it’s completely mad.” Given the length of its runway, Vatry is capable of handling some of the biggest freighter aircraft and can handle 150,000 tonnes a year. Mr Roze added:“Even at 50,000 tonnes, we could manage without any subsidies.” Ironically, as recently as the end of last year, Vatry was hiring staff in anticipation of cargo growth. With the introduction of the parcel tax across the EU from 1 July, Vatry is hoping it will mark the return of the ‘ecommerce freighters’ – however, there are no guarantees in an air cargo market beset by elevated jet fuel prices and volatile demand.