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There may be claims that the Panama Canal is operating “normally”, but anxiety is increasing that forthcoming maintenance will exacerbate congestion that has built since the US and Israel launched their assault on Iran – and El Niño is on the horizon. Average waiting time at the canal has surged 60% since the start of the conflict and is now around 48 hours, according to Scandinavian investment bank SEB, which warned that congestion was “already building” and would worsen with works set to begin on 9 June and last until the 17th. The maintenance on the dry chamber of the East Lane of Gatun Locks will result in the 26 available slots in the panamax locks reducing to 16 during the period. Amid the warnings, carriers and the Panama Canal Authority have sought to downplay the present congestion, pointing out that the waterway is continuing to handle its usual average of 36 to 38 vessels a day, while Maersk noted that the port of Manzanillo was operating normally. However, the claims are seemingly doing nothing to downplay concern over congestion, generated in part by ships carrying alternative Asian energy supplies – access to Middle Eastern suppliers being cut off by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Alongside bringing these ships through the canal, this shift in energy supply has spiked the prices being paid for auctioned slots, with reports that $4m was paid for a neopanamax auction slot, 29 times the average and 10 times what has become typical since the onset of the war. If that was not enough, growing weather risks are upping the ante, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating that El Niño has an 82% probability of returning before July – 98% odds on a return during the final quarter. Should it strike, the expectation is that the region will experience less rainfall, reducing water levels in the Gatun Lake, which would necessitate the imposition of restrictions on transits. Listen now for a data-rich deep dive into the volatility redefining global shipping in 2026

The biggest growth sector in air cargo could face significant challenges if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is creating a new, and largely overlooked, risk for global supply chains: helium shortages. As hyperscalers race to build data centres and deploy AI servers, demand is surging not only for GPUs and semiconductor equipment, but also for helium – a critical industrial gas used throughout chip manufacturing and advanced computing infrastructure. But the disruption in the Middle East has removed a significant portion of the global supply of helium from the market, raising concerns across the semiconductor sector and creating volatility for high-value air cargo flows. Consultancy Aevean estimates data-centre components now account for some 1.4m tonnes of annual air cargo volume, or roughly 5% of the global market, following 39% year-on-year growth driven by AI infrastructure expansion. Cargolux chief executive Richard Forson warned that the implications of the Iran conflict could stretch well beyond oil and jet fuel. “Helium is used intensively in cooling down the data centres,” he toldThe Loadstar.“The shortage of jet fuel will be the least of our worries.” The comments come as cargo airlines increasingly see AI-related shipments becoming a major source of premium freight demand. Indeed, Mr Forson said one of the fastest-growing cargo categories was now “transportation of server racks, with the data centres being set up to facilitate AI development”. “Everybody is on the AI boom,” he added. The surge is being reinforced by semiconductor manufacturers themselves. South Korea’s SK Hynix said in its first-quarter results that “demand for high-performance memory is surging while supply remains constrained”. Meanwhile, Taiwanese manufacturer TSMC has warned that AI-related semiconductor demand remained “extremely robust” and that supply constraints were expected to continue into 2027. But the AI boom is colliding with a new supply chain vulnerability, one centred on Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz. According toForbes, Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, which is the world’s largest helium production hub, normally accounts for roughly a third of global helium supply, but has been heavily disrupted by the Iran conflict. The publication said the disruption had removed an estimated 27% to 30% of global helium supply from the market, with spot prices surging between 40% and 100% within weeks. The shortage is particularly significant because helium has few industrial substitutes and is critical for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, AI GPU packaging, lithography, and high-capacity storage systems. TSMC has already moved into contingency planning mode. The company reportedly said it was sourcing “specialty chemicals and gases, including helium and hydrogen” from multiple regions and building safety-stock inventories to mitigate disruption risks. Analysts increasingly warn that the AI boom is colliding with physical bottlenecks in packaging, energy, industrial gases, and logistics, creating what one industry observer described as “a physical ceiling” for AI infrastructure expansion. However, in its first-quarter results announced last month, TSMC said it expected to see a 30% hike in 2026 revenue, suggesting it could largely surmount supply issues. But South Korea is considered especially exposed, because last year it sourced nearly 65% of its helium imports from Qatar. And the crisis is also exposing the fragility of the US helium market.While it remains the world’s largest helium producer,Forbesnoted that much of the US’s strategic buffer capacity disappeared after the privatisation of the US Federal Helium Reserve in 2024. Tom’s Hardwarereportedthat around 200 specialised helium containers were stranded near the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict escalated, while some semiconductor manufacturers may only have several weeks of inventory available before shortages become critical. The irony for air cargo is that the AI boom is creating huge new freight demand at the same time as helium shortages threaten the semiconductor supply chains underpinning it. And it can be high-yield cargo: Mr Forson said server and electronics shipments needed more specialised handling than traditional cargo. “It’s handling that is going to be more diligent than for other cargo,” he said. Some analysts now believe AI infrastructure could become as strategically important to air cargo as ecommerce has been over the past decade. The result is that AI infrastructure is now reshaping not only semiconductor markets, but also global logistics flows, freighter demand, and strategic cargo planning. Listen to our recent podcast with Container Trades Statistics to hear a deep dive into the Q1 ocean freight dynamics!

An early peak season is materialising, and mainline operators are planning extra loader sailings to meet shippers’ heightened requests. On Friday, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index showed a 19% week-on-week gain in the Shanghai-Europe rate, to $3,076 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate went up by 10%, to $3,118 per 40ft. The Shanghai-US East Coast rate increased by 11% to $4,224 per 40ft. The Shanghai-Mediterranean rate surged by 28%, to $3,145 per teu. Maersk will deploy a transpacific ad hoc sailing service (TPX) connecting Cai Mep, Busan, Long Beach, and Cai Mep from 8 June, which will turn in 49 days and deploy five to seven ships of 3,500 to 4,600 teu, starting with the 4,395 teuRen Jian 16. TPX will operate until September, with 10 sailings currently scheduled and more to be added depending on market demand. Linerlytica said: “The rate momentum remains positive, with teu-mile demand growth moving ahead of supply growth, allowing carriers to push ahead with their mid-May rate hikes. “The early peak season rush has raised capacity utilisation, and carriers are pushing for another round of rate hikes and peak season surcharges to be applied from 1 June. Vessel demand remains very high, with additional peak season loaders due to be launched in June, centred around the transpacific and Indian subcontinent.” Asia-Europe rates surged as new FAK rates took effect on 15 May, with rates to the Mediterranean noticeably stronger due to very high demand. Supporting rising freight rates is port congestion across North Europe that has worsened, with Hamburg vessel backlogs rising due to pilot strikes, while low water levels on the Rhine also boosting congestion at Rotterdam and Antwerp. Transpacific carriers are taking advantage of the demand surge by restricting named account (NAC) space to prioritise higher-margin FAK volumes, while also pushing the May rate hikes to prepare for peak season surcharges from 1 June. Linerlytica added: “Transpacific space remains tight on the back of increased e-commerce cargo, driven partly by Amazon’s decision to move its Prime Day sale from July to June, which has created a compressed window for cross-border shipments.” Listen now for a data-rich deep dive into the volatility redefining global shipping in 2026

The pressure of terminal congestion at India’s Nhava Sheva Port (JNPA) is seeing carriers declare ad-hoc or temporary berthing window adjustments. Maersk told customers its two upcoming MECL voyages on the India-US east coast trade would temporarily dock at PSA Mumbai (BMCT), the port’s largest facility by capacity, instead of its regular call at DP World Nhava Sheva (NSICT). Maersk KensingtonandClementine Maerskare scheduled to arrive at JNPA on 22 and 29 May, respectively. Last-minute terminal reshuffling typically leaves shippers facing some cargo planning challenges. Additionally, terminal handling charges (THCs) vary from terminal to terminal, so any changes in rates applied by the carrier could trickle down to the shipper contract. The MECL is a major westbound service for Indian exporters sending goods to North America. According to terminal sources in JNPA, Maersk had a yard space issue at NSICT. “BMCT has a larger yard area,” one source toldThe Loadstar. “Maersk needs to move backlogged containers out of NSICT, mostly empty boxes, before bringing fresh volumes into the terminal.” JNPA has been plagued by significant cargo gate-in/out disruption over the past few weeks, leading to “finger-pointing” between port stakeholders over who would be responsible for remedying the situation. Meanwhile, as trucking delays persist, PSA Mumbai is trying to shift more freight from trucks to the rail side. Last week, the operator signed a memorandum of understanding with rail company Container Corp of India (Concor) to expand the share of volumes moved by train. This will “pave the way for collaboration between Concor and PSA on development of multimodal products to strengthen connectivity and support efficient cargo movements between ports and hinterland locations across India”, reported the rail logistics giant. The collaboration comes as authorities are in the final stages of launching regular train operations between northern Indian inland container depots and JNPA along the dedicated freight corridor (DFC) network. JNPA also continues its co-ordinated efforts to improve cargo flows in and out of its terminals. The authority has announced an updated standard operating procedure for quicker clearance of containers. “JNPA, in collaboration with Customs, terminal operators, container freight stations , and transporting companies, is devising a system to remove the import containers en bloc from terminals to specific freight stations which have high pendency,” the authority said. Listen now for a data-rich deep dive into the volatility redefining global shipping in 2026

Despite a year-on-year decline in overall US cargo theft – for the first time since 2021 – supply chain security specialists are warning that organised criminal groups are becoming more sophisticated, with fraud-based schemes and high-value targeting continuing to drive risk higher. Overhaul’s Q1 26 US Cargo Theft Report notes 574 cargo thefts – an average of 6.4 incidents a day over the first three months of the year, and a 6% decrease year on year. However, the company cautioned that the apparent improvement masked a more troubling shift in criminal tactics. “Cargo theft usually goes down at the start of the year, but the drop in 2026 was smaller than expected, and risk levels did not go down as much as in previous years,” the report noted. Compared with Q4 25, incidents fell 25%, significantly below the 34% seasonal decline recorded during the same period a year earlier. Overhaul said it continued to consider the cargo theft threat in the US to be “high, and on the rise”, due to the “continued increase in the level of organisation and sophistication” of criminal groups focusing on high-value cargo. One of the clearest signs was the growth in ‘deceptive pick-up’ thefts, which rose 31% year on year. These involve criminals using fake identities, forged credentials and carrier impersonation to fraudulently collect freight. It accounted for 10% of all incidents in Q1, with California the site of nearly half the reported cases, and Illinois, Indiana, and New Jersey notable hotspots. “The growth in deceptive pick-up schemes tells us that organised networks are investing in fraud infrastructure,” said Overhaul chief executive Barry Conlon.“When criminals are forging identities and impersonating carriers, a padlock on a trailer isn’t going to stop them.” The report warned shippers to strengthen verification processes across all shipment-related activity, particularly when working with new carriers or drivers, and recommended detailed documentation at origin points, including photographs of drivers, licences, trailer seals, and vehicle markings, alongside checks for warning signs such as temporary placards, altered logos, or missing licence plates. “Driver and business verification, prior to releasing any shipment, is paramount,” Overhaul said. Electronics remained the most frequently targeted cargo, accounting for 17% of all thefts, although theft involving automotive cargo rose 142% compared with Q4 25 and 51% year on year, making it the only category to increase across both comparison periods. Meanwhile, cargo theft also spread beyond the traditional hotspots. California accounted for 36% of all reported thefts, followed by Texas at 17%, but Illinois surged from 6% to 13% this Q1, with electronics accounting for 45% of those thefts. And Memphis has emerged as an area of growing concern, the city recording a 27% increase in incidents, driven largely by pilferage from unattended shipments overnight. Overhaul added that cargo theft patterns were becoming more evenly distributed throughout the day, suggesting criminals were adapting beyond traditional low-visibility operating windows. “Driver and business verification, prior to releasing any shipment, is paramount,” it said. Overhaul recommends shippers be extremely diligent in vetting all carriers and drivers, particularly those operating out of Southern California, and those handling highly targeted products such as electronics. “Additionally, tracking technology should be used to its fullest extent on the conveyance power unit, cargo area when separate, and the cargo itself, maintaining visibility of the shipment to identify suspicious route deviations, unauthorized stops, and separation of the cargo from the conveyance.”

Amazon, the sixth-largest containerized importer into the United States, is being sued by consumers who say it raised prices to cover tariffs the Supreme Court later struck down, and then chose not to seek refunds it was legally entitled to collect. The class action, Markland v. Amazon.com, was filed on 15 May in the Western District of Washington by Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro, a firm with deep experience in large-scale consumer litigation. It alleges violations of the Washington Consumer ...

Announced in October 2025, Japan Post’s near-20% stake in Logisteed* has yet to yield dividends, but things seem to be moving – right, not exactly at the speed of light, yet there are developments on that front. Luckily. (*Previously known as Hitachi Transport System) In fact It was earlier this month on 8 May when Japan Post (JP) – the parent company of 3PL Toll Group from Australia – and Tokyo-based Logisteed (which is controlled by PE behemoth KKR) announced that the two companies: “Have ...

The normally staid transatlantic trade has recently experienced a tumultuous period of uncharacteristically volatile pricing, by its standards at least, largely as result of capacity injections and subsequent removals. Throughout last year, and up to the outbreak of the US/Israel-Iran conflict, volumes have been flat, tempered by tariffs, while rates continually weakened. Meanwhile, the Container Trades Statistics Price Index has been in steady decline since the beginning of 2025. The Europe-North America route’s price index was 102 in January 2025, and had fallen to 88 by December. January this year saw it at 84 and it further declined to 83 in February, before capacity reductions managed to stabilise prices at 83 in March. Source: Container Trades Statistics Meanwhile, volumes in Q1 26 remained weak, with some 40,000 teu fewer shipped in the first three months compared with Q1 25, representing a market decline of just over 3%. Source: Container Trades Statistics The weakness of earnings on the transatlantic was one of the chief reasons cited by Hapag-Lloyd last week when it reported a $174m EBIT loss in its liner activities. “[We had] significant exposure to the Atlantic freight, which was very weak in the first quarter, in particular. And as a consequence of that we have had to take some capacity out because it was simply no longer possible to provide those services at a reasonable cost,” chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen told financial analysts. In April, it closed its CES transatlantic service, on which Maersk had been a slot charterer. The string deployed seven ships with an average capacity of 2,700 teu and connected Northern Europe with Saint John, Philadelphia, and Port Everglades, along with Moin, Santa Marta, and Cartagena in the Caribbean. According to Xeneta’seeSealiner database, at this point last year the number of monthly transatlantic services stood at 55, with 44 being direct services into North America from North Europe and the Mediterranean, with the remaining 11 made up of Europe-Latin America and Europe-Oceania services that included wayport calls in North America. Last month, that tally was down to 50 services a month, with pure transatlantic services standing at 38, meaning carriers have withdrawn six services over the past 12 months alone. Spot rate recovery However, since the onset of April, spot rates on the trade have staged a surprising recovery, driven by two factors – reduced capacity, and the imposition of new emergency fuel surcharges following the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which under Federal Maritime Commission regulations had to wait 30 days until being applied, along with opportunistic peak seasons surcharges And not just in quoted spot rates, but actual rates paid, as shown by the latest data from NYSHEX, which manages the New York Freight Index. Last week saw its transatlantic westbound rate grow 12% on the previous week, to finish at $2,253 per 40ft, compared with the low point of the past 12 months, which was 7 November, when the reading stood at $1,342 per 40ft. Source: NYSHEX Meanwhile, forwarders on the trade are now closely watching vessel deployment to ascertain how spot rates may develop up to the peak season. “I did notice one of the Premier Alliance sailings coming into to Europe is not going back to Asia, but will move to the transatlantic, it was theONE Satisfaction,” one forwarder toldThe Loadstar. “The additions to that Liberty [service] should have an impact on rates, and I expect us to get close to somewhere near the levels we saw in February this year, allowing for higher BAF etc. but it will just take a while to get there,” he said. The 13,700 teuONE Satisfactionwas removed from the Premier Alliance FE3/MSC Condor Asia-Europe service and deployed to the Ocean Alliance’s transatlantic Liberty service, where ONE has moved from being a slot charterer to a tonnage provider. It has also meant Liberty now has seven ships compared with six before, according to eeSea. TheONE Hammersmith, previously on the Premier Alliance’s FE1 Asia-Europe service, was also assigned to Liberty at the beginning of May, but it replaced theEver Faithwhich left the string in early March. Throughout 2025, monthly proforma westbound transatlantic capacity remained remarkably stable, at between 240,000 teu and 250,000 teu of slot capacity, with actual offered capacity ranging between 230,000 teu and 240,000 teu a month. That changed in April, when proforma capacity dropped to 220,000 teu and offered capacity amounted to 210,000 teu, according to eeSea. According to the latest data from Linerlytica, there is 462,412 teu of capacity across 78 ships deployed on the Mediterranean-North America trade, which is up 4.4% on last month, and 3.4% over the same point last year; while on the North Europe-North America trade, capacity is down 9.8% year on year and 3% month on month, to currently stand at 544,194 teu across 93 vessels. The recent behaviour of spot rates suggests this probably about the right level, but now that those rates are well into profit-making territory for carriers, the key question is how disciplined they will remain in withholding further capacity additions. Listen to our recent podcast with Container Trades Statistics to hear a deep-dive into the Q1 ocean freight dynamics!