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Despite another turbulent contract season, most major US shippers continue to favour annual ocean freight agreements over shorter-term or index-linked alternatives, according to industry executives. Stephanie Loomis, head of procurement, pricing and commercial relations, ocean product, at Noatum Logistics, toldThe Loadstarthis year’s transpacific eastbound contracting cycle had been the most challenging of her career. “By far, in my 30-plus-year career, the most complicated and confusing transpacific eastbound contract season,” she said. “We’ve had decades of it being rather easy to contract, in the sense that carriers are pretty aligned in pricing structures and what a base rate from one lane to another is, and baf – although it has always fluctuated quarterly – has not had dramatic impacts on the overall cost lane by lane or region by region. “Now, of course, that’s been completely thrown out the window. You’ve got very different methodologies, carrier by carrier; some are implementing these high emergency fuel surcharges, some want to change their bunker monthly.” Ms Loomis said many shippers still preferred annual-rate tenders, but calculating those rates had become significantly more complex amid diverging carrier pricing models. She added: “I am hearing in the market that there are a lot of shippers that are worried about the potential if the war were to finally really end, if we see an opening of the Strait of Hormuz – that will change dramatically the capacity and the vessel routings, and that could impact spot rates, so I have heard more shippers and importers looking at shorter-term deals, six months more indexing.” However, she noted that the “big BCOs in the United States”, for the most part, remained committed to annual contracts. That view was echoed by Mark Chadwick, president of the Global Shippers’ Association (GSA), speaking toThe Loadstaron the sidelines of TIACA’s Executive Summit in Warsaw. In ocean freight, he argued, larger cargo owners still had the leverage to secure long-term arrangements. “If you’re a big enough shipper,” he said, “you can impose one-year rates and avoid peak season surcharges and all this other stuff.” Mr Chadwick acknowledged that exceptional market events required flexibility. “If there’s a massive thing happens, like when the Suez Canal was kind of closed down, there has to be some flexibility,” he said. “We’re still going for one-year rates. If you listen to the consultants, everybody should be doing short-term rate negotiations, but we’re not really seeing that. We’ve seen that even through turbulent times, one-year rates, as long as you’re open to some flexibility, it pays off.” The same principle increasingly applies to air cargo procurement. “That’s completely absurd now,” Mr Chadwick said of the two-year airfreight contracts the GSA once negotiated. “We try and do one-year fixed rates, and then in situations like at the moment, if there’s a sustained and significant change in the market, we’ll have discussions, and we’ll try to make some adjustments. When the ecommerce bubble really kind of skyrocketed the rates, we had to have discussions on China outbound, but other than that, we try and keep to one-year rates.” Despite persistent volatility across both ocean and air freight markets, index-linked contracts remain uncommon. “Agreeing on which index is the first problem,” Mr Chadwick explained. “The carriers are interested in indexing when it’s in their favour, and when it’s not, then they just don’t want to touch it. And we know there are companies out there that index, but whenever we approach the carriers, they’ve said they’d rather carry on as they are. They’re not coming to us offering index solutions.” He added that both carriers and shippers often had commercial reasons to avoid strict index-based pricing. “If carriers see that they can make a killing in the market, they might not want to wait for the index to tell them they can,” he said, while shippers may be able to secure rates below index levels from carriers pursuing market share. Instead, Mr Chadwick suggested, indices could serve as market indicators rather than automatic pricing mechanisms. “One thing I propose for air freight is, instead of indexing and moving your price based on the index, an index that indicates a trend at which you trigger a discussion,” he said. “Like we saw with the China outbound in the ecommerce peak, all of the indices showed that rates were through the roof. That gave us the kind of the openness to have a conversation to talk about that price, rather than us being tied to ‘if it goes in 10% your rates go up 10%’.”

With tentative hopes of a reopening of the Hormuz Strait dashed by the wave of air strikes Iran and the US traded last night, Gulf importers trying to get goods into their markets may have to turn to all-road routes and the TIR system, as Middle East landbridges struggle to keep up with demand. Mounting container congestion in the Saudi Red Sea gateways of Jeddah and King Abdullah (KAP) ports have left carriers unable to secure enough container haulage to fulfil shipments, with forwarders reporting huge delays in containers being gated out. “We have cargo routed into Jeddah and KAP for onwards delivery to the Gulf via merchant haulage, and are seeing timelines of between six to eight weeks to secure release, drivers, and delivery into the Gulf,” one forwarder toldThe Loadstar. He added that seasonal and administrative factors were increasing the pressure. “The routing into Gulf countries via the Red Sea has become extremely congested due to the influx of transit cargo, plus the seasonal peak into this region related to the Hajj festival. “It is not just the physical infrastructure that has become overwhelmed, but also the administrative services related to customs clearance and cargo release at the shipping lines and ports,” he explained. Gemini partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, which recently launched the Asia-Mediterranean AE19 service that includes a call at Jeddah (accessed via a southbound passage through the Suez Canal),announced at the beginning of Junethey had stopped accepting bookings to the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait via Jeddah and KAP, and would instead route those shipments through Khor Fakkan and Salalah. The Loadstarunderstands that MSC has also begun to route UAE-bound cargo through Khor Fakkan after it is transhipped over Colombo. “We have been suggesting to active clients for several weeks to avoid the Red Sea routing and switch across to the Arabian Sea services (Salalah, Khor Fakkan, Sharjah etc) due to the congestion in the Red Sea region, and this is being actively taken up,” the forwarder added. Source: The Loadstar Haulage sources in the region confirmed the capacity problems at Saudi’s Red Sea ports, but added that they were not just happening there. “Jeddah sea port is indeed running at full capacity, and some operators are experiencing delays on both entry and exit,” one said. “Alternative ports closer to the Gulf are indeed being considered, such as Khor Fakkan and Sharjah, but they also face the same capacity issues as Jeddah, including the ‘administrative congestion’ issues.” One silver lining, however, might be found in the all-road route from Turkey, which has reportedly seen a surge in traffic, most of which is running under the TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers) system, which “enables goods to transit from a country of origin to a destination country in sealed load compartments, reducing the need for repeated customs inspections”, and is managed by the International Road Transport Union (IRU). “There is a significant increase in direct truck movements connecting Turkey to the Gulf via Syria and Jordan,” Rami Karout, the IRU’s senior manager for TIR & transit development toldThe Loadstar. “The market is witnessing significant movements in both directions, and the majority is operating under the United Nations TIR system, which streamlines customs procedures and delivers considerable cost and time savings for transport operators,” he added.

An estimated more than 1,000 dark fleet ships are a danger to the environment and a drag on the economics of the legitimate traders says Capital Maritime founder June 2, 2026 Our ocean environments are at considerable risk from the ageing and dilapidated dark fleet, which should have been scrapped years ago, Capital Maritime & Trading Corp founder Evangelos Marinakis told the final panel at the Capital Link conference in Athens on Monday. According to the tanker owner governments have failed to protect the oceans, nor have they considered the possible impacts of the lack of insurance and maintenance or conditions that crew are working under on these vessels. “In my opinion, they should have acted immediately and blocked these vessels,” said Marinakis, “This hasn't happened and of course they are taking an enormous environmental risk.” That risk is amplified for Mediterranean countries where tourism is a major source of income for people in countries includingGreece, Italy, Spain and France, but also for theUKthe Baltic countries and from the Black Sea to Suez. Related:Number of Greek owners with fleets of 1 million tonnes jumps 24% The only solution to this problem is for these shipowners to be allowed to scrap these vessels claimed Marinakis. “Give them a deadline of 60 or 90 days or even more to enable them to scrap the fleet this is the only way that you can reduce the fleet because at the end of the day, if after the wars are finished and this dark fleet stays that is because they are offering charterers much cheaper rates, and they use them,” he said. If these ships continue to trade it will put the investments of legitimate owners at great risk. “I think that we should all say it loudly, to the European Union and also to theUnited Statesto allow scrapping and to give a deadline so it can start,” concluded Marinakis. Moderator Watson Farley & Williams Partner George Paleokrassas then asked to what extent have the benefits of sanctions been outweighed by the unintended consequences of the penalties? Sanctions have had the most impact on European consumers as the EU has been forced to source oil at higher prices than India and China, for example, according to the ship owner, “Sanctionsmake no sense,” he added. Putin and Russia are still selling crude oil and they receive more money than before the war, “So where is the impact of the sanctions?” Asked Marinakis. Read more about: Nick Savvides Europe correspondent Experienced journalist working online, in monthly magazines and daily news coverage. Nick Savvides began his journalistic career working as a freelance from his flat in central London, and has since worked in Athens, while also writing for some major publications including The Observer, The European, Daily Express and Thomson Reuters. Most recently Nick joined The Loadstar as the publication’s news editor to develop the profile of the publication, increase its readership and to build a team that will market, sell and report on supply chain issues and container shipping news. This was a similar brief to his time at ci-online, the online publication for Containerisation International and Container News. During his time at ci-online Nich developed a team of freelancers and full-time employees increasing its readership substantially. He then moved to International Freighting Weekly, a sister publication, IFW also focused on container shipping, rail and trucking and ports. Both publications were published by Informa. Following his spell at Informa Nick joined Reed’s chemical reporting team, ICIS, as the chemical tanker reporter. While at ICIS he also reported on the chemical industry and spent some time on the oil & gas desk. Nick has also worked for a time at Lloyd’s Register, which has an energy division, and his role was writing their technical magazine, before again becoming a journalist at The Naval Architect for the Royal Institution of Naval Architects. After eight successful years at RINA, he joined Fairplay, which published a fortnightly magazine and daily news on the website. Nick's time at Fairplay saw him win theSeahorse Club Journalist of the Year and Feature Writer of the Year 2018 awards. After Fairplay closed, Nick joined an online US start-up called FreightWaves.

Owners confident of near- and medium- term support from Hormuz closure, but energy security may dampen long-term outlook. May 22, 2026 Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has completely rewired the global seaborne crude transportation market, affecting fleet size, regional export volumes, and trade routes, but the market has found a similar equilibrium to the tight situation before the Middle East conflict began. The first quarter results calls of Frontline and CMB.Tech, owner of tanker brandEuronav, paint a picture of lower oil volumes being carried over greater distances to roughly re-balance the market. Frontline boasted an adjusted profit of $344.9m for the first quarter 2026, its highest since the fourth quarter of 2004, while CMB.Tech recorded a $368.8m profit for its diversified operations, approaching the strong market with a mix of vessel sales and long-term charter fixtures. CMB.Tech, which has “a couple of ships” trapped in the Arabian Gulf, has a fleet of fourVLCCson the water, two newbuild VLCCs on order and 18 suezmaxes in operation. The company sold its eight oldest VLCCs and a single suezmax this year and took delivery of a pair of suezmaxes; the sale of six of the VLCCs brought a capital gain of around $260m in the first quarter. Related:Top maritime news stories for week ended 22 May CMB.Tech co-head of investor relations Joris Daman broke down the effect closure of the Strait of Hormuz had on crude oil transport volumes and the mechanisms by which the market has found its new equilibrium. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut 15m barrels per day of crude shipments from the Gulf, in part been regained by diversions through pipelines, the largest of which isSaudi Arabia'sYanbu pipeline, totalling 5.5m barrels per day. Over the past two months, an average of around 1.2m barrels per day has continued to flow through the Strait, and release from floating storage and easing of some Russian sanctions contributed a further 0.7m barrels per day, according to the CMB.Tech figures. “Then the real interesting part comes and that's on one hand the export growth out of theUS— which is a combination of additional volumes but also SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) releases — roughly 1.4m barrels per day, and then also other countries stepping up the game, for example,Brazil, Guyana,Canada, Angola and they are additionally bringing 1m barrels per day capacity to the market,” Daman said during CMB.Tech’s Q1 earnings call. The various mitigations leave a 5.3m barrel per day loss in volumes compared to pre-war levels, but the gap is further bridged by the greater distances between buyers and their new suppliers. For voyages toChinafrom the US, Brazil, and Guyana, the tonne-mile kicker is a multiplier between two and two and a half, said Daman. Related:Iran war boosts Panama Canal traffic Applying that multiplier to the 2.4m barrels per day of export growth from the US, Norway, Brazil, Turkey, Guyana, Canada, and Angola roughly balances that 5.3m barrel per day deficit and brings balance from a tonne-mile perspective, said Daman, although the balance will only remain so long as those exporters sustain their elevated output. CMB.Tech CEO Alexander Saverys pointed to a gradual softening of VLCC rates on the TD 22 US Gulf - China route from a peak of over $200,000 per day, as ships in ballast moved to where the cargo was available. “Now when I say gradually going down, we are still at a level around $100,000 a day, which is very, very healthy for our market. But it shows you the disruption that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz also has on the positioning of the vessels,” he said. CMB.Tech’s earnings release did warn of rising numbers of ships West of Suez and a falling utilisation ratio: “This pressure is expected to persist the longer the Strait remains closed, reinforced with broader macroeconomic implications and more pronounced effects on tanker demand,” it said. Putting current freight levels in perspective, Frontline CEO Lars Barstad said the line of the TD 15 West Africa to China index may look bleak, falling off from a peak of $300,000 in late March, but that the $100,000 per day recorded in late May is four times its VLCC fleet’s cash break-even levels. Related:Weekly tanker and dry bulk time charter rates - May 20 While the specific figures vary, Frontline told a similar story of longer distances helping to balance lower volumes in its first quarter earnings call, although Frontline CEO Lars Barstad believed that the portion of the VLCC fleet remaining unutilised for non-economical reasons was the single biggest factor in the rates equation. He theorised that owners, most likely national oil companies, with VLCCs sitting on standby outside of the Gulf are positioning themselves to be the first into the Gulf when Hormuz is opened, giving them access to oil at a significant discount. The vessels are likely on time charter contracts agreed years ago rather than current market levels, making the price of that strategy more manageable, he speculated. “The alternative is that if they went in to compete with us, say in the Atlantic market, that vessel would be gone for 70 to 90 days, then they really have to have to call us if they need freight out of the Middle East Gulf quickly,” said Barstad. Speculating on a potential return to normal for the Middle East, Barstad said he believes we will not see pre-war Middle East export volumes anytime soon, and that after an initial flow as tankers stuck in the Gulf return to the market, it would take time for production to resume even as exporters chase volume to boost their liquidity. Potential good news for the compliant tanker fleet is Frontline’s belief that Iranian crude will become compliant by the time the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, adding between 1.5m and 2m barrels of demand to the compliant fleet when the dark fleet is left behind. In the medium term, Barstad expects that energy security will play a role in supporting tanker demand as oil buyers look to diversify their crude sources after the price shock experienced after the Gulf’s closure, especially in Asia. Signs of this diversification can be seen in the time charter market, where Asian industrial players have started trying to access ships for delivery in 2027-29 to commit to oil supply contracts from Latin America, West Africa, and the US, said Barstad. In the longer term, the disruption may prove a negative for oil tankers. “I think the point that we cannot get away from is that this whole situation — which has now lasted for 12 weeks and counting — it's also a huge push for energy diversification by way of looking at other kinds of energy sources like nuclear, wind, solar,” said Barstad. “It's actually a push towards long-term energy transition, but I think that's five years out,” he said. The time charter equivalent earnings for the Frontline fleet were looking up across the board for the second quarter, where 82% of the VLCC fleet’s days were contracted at an average of $181,700 per day, an increase of 75% over the $103,500 recorded in the first quarter. Suezmaxes were 79% fixed at $131,300, an increase of 81% over the first quarter. Euronav’s VLCC fleet recorded time charter equivalent earnings of $70,204 per day in the first quarter, and are 81% fixed at an average of $182,731 for the second quarter, up 160%. Its suezmax fleet was 83% fixed at an average of $122,147 per day, up 32% over the first quarter. Read more about: Gary Howard Middle East correspondent Gary Howard is the Middle East Correspondent for Seatrade Maritime News and has written for Seatrade Cruise, Seatrade Maritime Review and was News Editor at Lloyd’s List. Gary’s maritime career started after catching the shipping bug during a research assignment for the offshore industry. Working out of Seatrade's head office in the UK, he also produces and contributes to conference programmes for Seatrade events including CMA Shipping, Seatrade Maritime Logistics Middle East and Marintec. Gary’s favourite topics within the maritime industry are decarbonisation and wind-assisted propulsion; he particularly enjoys reporting from industry events. Gary Howard regularly moderates at international maritime events. Below you’ll find a list of selected past conferences and webinars. Ports of Refuge: Strengthening Maritime Resilience, at Seatrade Maritime Logistics Middle East 2025 Debunking LEO and Cloud for Maritime Industry, December 2022 (watch on-demand recording) Making Data Work for Shipping at Seatrade ShipTech Virtual 2021 Is the Zero-Carbon Future a Slow Shipping Future?at Seatrade ShipTech Virtual 2021 Is Ship Finance Transforming Faster than Shipping?at Seatrade ShipTech Virtual 2021

This week’sNews in Briefdives back into the ongoing disruption in the Middle East, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and oil prices continue to ripple through global supply chains. But while uncertainty persists, there are signs of shifting strategy, with CMA CGM doubling down on Red Sea transits, raising the question of whether other carriers will follow, and what that could mean for freight rates. Charlotte Goldstone is joined by Xeneta’s Peter Sand to break down the latest on ocean freight, from the risk of a renewed rate war to what improving schedule reliability really means beneath the surface. On the airfreight side,The Loadstar‘s Alex Lennane unpacks a market still under pressure. Capacity is slowly returning, but jet fuel shortages and high prices are keeping rates elevated and operations tight. We also look at flight cuts in Chicago, Kuehne + Nagel’s latest earnings, and a deep dive into Cathay Cargo and the “cruel paradox” facing the carrier amid ongoing disruption. From Suez strategy to fuel strain, this episode maps the key forces shaping freight right now. Click the link below to watch the podcast on YouTube, and subscribe so you never miss an update! https://youtu.be/n8hxd85hM68 Click here to receive an email notification every time we release a podcast.

The container shipping market may appear robust, but “much of the current strength is borrowed”, and underlying fundamentals suggest a fragile outlook, warned Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach. “Rates are firm, utilisation is tight, and sentiment is broadly constructive,” he said.“But dig a little deeper, and the picture is more complicated than the headline numbers suggest. “And he cautioned that “much of the current strength is borrowed”. A key driver of the current strength is the continued rerouting of vessels from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which has lengthened voyages and absorbed capacity that might otherwise be excess and weigh on the market. “That is propping the market up – but it is not a permanent fix,” Mr Roach said, warning that a faster-than-expected return to normal Suez transits could trigger a sudden capacity surge, which would be “a release valve opening, and the market would feel it quickly”. The Loadstarreported earlier this week thatCMA CGMwas doubling its Suez Canaltransits as shippers were prepared to pay a premium to move cargo quicker, via the Red Sea – and Linerlytica suggested this may prompt its rivals to do the same. Mr Roach suggested that an “upside scenario” would be if disruption continued longer than expected, or if delivery schedules slipped. This way, the market would “stay tighter for longer”. And he said: “The downside is sharper.” More Suez Canal transits would release capacity back into the system, “accelerating the move into oversupply and compressing the timeline for the correction”. However, Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, toldThe Loadstar: “I think carriers eventually will get back to the Red Sea, but they are in no rush, for various reasons. “They have one sizeable disruption to handle currently, which is the Middle East, on top of all the others – Houthi rebels, Trump tariff wars, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There will only be a full scale return once they can see that this is a safe thing to do; this is a steady thing to do; and we can reset our networks the way they were – at least through Red Sea with Suez Canal transits as we saw them back in 2023.” And Mr Roach highlighted another “genuine counterweight worth watching”. He explained: “China is moving fast. Faced with higher US tariffs, it is pivoting hard to expand its export reach – South America, Africa, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East. These are longer, more complex trade routes, and they consume more vessel capacity per unit of cargo moved.” This re-shaping of trade flows adds “real ton-mile demand to the system” and could “absorb more of the coming supply than many expect”, he added. But even so, he believes demand growth will struggle to keep pace with supply. Global trade is forecast to expand just 2% to 4% annually, while a significant amount of newbuild tonnage is due to enter service between 2026 and 2028. “2026 still looks relatively firm; disruption and inefficiency are doing the work of keeping the market tight. 2027 is where the shift begins,”said Mr Roach And by 2028, oversupply would no longer be a forecast, but “the reality”. This, in theory, means rates will come under pressure across most segments and idle tonnage builds.And he added that the exposure of oversupply was not equal across segments. While larger vessels, above 7,500 teu, will feel the turn first, “because they are the ones driving cascading into secondary markets”, vessels in the 4,000 to 7,500 teu range would be the most exposed, “squeezed from both ends” – displaced by larger ships above and pushed into feeder trades below. Feeders and regional vessels below 4,000 teu are “relatively more insulated”, supported by structural regional demand, said Mr Roach, but he warned that older tonnage in the segment would become “increasingly vulnerable as conditions deteriorate”. Inside the industry’s AI shift Complete The Loadstar’s ‘State of AI in the Supply Chain’ survey — and receive the full report and data before release. Take the 2-min survey

La rotta più breve libera capacità proprio mentre entra sul mercato una nuova ondata di portacontainer. Xeneta prevede anche una riduzione del 5% per i contratti di lungo periodo, ma restano decisivi i rischi geopolitici Suez – Il progressivo ritorno delle compagnie attraverso il Mar Rosso e il Canale di Suez potrebbe contribuire a una diminuzione del 30% dei noli spot container nel 2027. La previsione di Xeneta confronta la media del prossimo anno con i livelli registrati nel terzo trimestre del 2026. Anche i contratti di lungo periodo dovrebbero subire una correzione, stimata intorno al 5%. Il mercato si troverebbe infatti ad affrontare contemporaneamente una crescita della flotta del 6,8% e un aumento della domanda compreso soltanto fra il 2,5% e il 4%. Nel 2027 sono attese consegne per 2,9 milioni di teu, solo parzialmente compensate dalla demolizione di circa 500.000 teu. A questa capacità si aggiungeranno le navi liberate dal ripristino delle rotte più brevi: secondo Xeneta, il ritorno a Suez avrebbe già rimesso a disposizione 599.000 teu nominali durante il 2026. A ottobre la capacità settimanale programmata attraverso il Mar Rosso aveva raggiunto circa 467.000 teu, ancora pari soltanto alla metà dei livelli precedenti alla crisi. La prosecuzione del rientro nel primo semestre del 2027 potrebbe quindi aumentare ulteriormente l’offerta effettiva senza richiedere l’aggiunta di nuove navi. La previsione resta subordinata alla sicurezza del Mar Rosso e di Bab el-Mandeb. Un nuovo shock potrebbe assorbire nuovamente la capacità e sostenere le tariffe; in assenza di altre interruzioni, però, la combinazione fra ritorno a Suez e consegne record rischia di riportare il mercato sotto il controllo dell’eccesso di stiva.

L’Autorità del Canale di Suez prevede che il fatturato dell’intero anno possa salire in una forbice compresa tra i 5,8 e i 6 miliardi di dollari, rispetto ai 4,1 miliardi conseguiti nel 2025 Suez – Il Canale di Suez ha registrato una forte ripresa a luglio, segnando un incremento del 42% dei ricavi rispetto allo stesso periodo dell’anno precedente. A spingere le navi verso la via d’acqua egiziana sono stati la chiusura di fatto dello Stretto di Hormuz a causa della guerra con l’Iran e le continue minacce dei ribelli Houthi nel Mar Rosso meridionale. Secondo i dati dell’agenzia di statistica Capmas, a luglio sono transitate complessivamente 1.340 navi, segnando un aumento del 27% rispetto a luglio 2025 e superando le 1.208 unità dello scorso giugno. Le petroliere hanno rappresentato una quota consistente, con 526 unità rispetto alle 485 del mese precedente. Complessivamente, i proventi del canale hanno raggiunto quota 505 milioni di dollari, il livello mensile più alto registrato da dicembre 2023. L’Autorità del Canale di Suez prevede che il fatturato dell’intero anno possa salire in una forbice compresa tra i 5,8 e i 6 miliardi di dollari, rispetto ai 4,1 miliardi conseguiti nel 2025. Nonostante la recente boccata d’ossigeno, i volumi e i ricavi restano comunque distanti dai record storici registrati prima del conflitto di Gaza, quando nel 2023 la via d’acqua aveva incassato la cifra record di 10,2 miliardi di dollari.

Così l’avanzata degli Houthi filo-iraniani sconvolge i fragili equilibri dell’economia globale mentre vola il petrolio, prosegue l’annientamento della popolazione palestinese da parte di Israele e i venti di guerra non accennano a calare. La sorpresa di Suez Prima il porto di Mocha, poi le isole di Dhubab, Perim e Hanish sul Mar Rosso. L’attacco sferrato a settembre dalle milizie Houthi nello Yemen permette al proxy iraniano di mettere fisicamente le mani sullo stretto di Bab el-Mandeb. L’azione militare porta il livello ben oltre la deterrenza giocata finora con missili e droni scagliati contro i mercantili giudicati ostili e pone ulteriormente sotto scacco una delle rotte più importanti per il trasporto di greggio dal Golfo verso il Mediterraneo. Immediato l’effetto sulle quotazioni, con il Brent salito oltre cento dollari al barile: l’onda si abbatterà sui consumatori all’arrivo dell’inverno. Nessun impatto invece sui container: le compagnie per ora si fidano delle rassicurazioni arrivate dai ribelli yemeniti che promettono una normale navigazione commerciale internazionale nel Mar Rosso e nello stretto da cui passa il traffico di Suez. Gli Houthi motivano la loro offensiva con la necessità di guadagnare posizioni nella guerra in atto con le forza governative dello Yemen e l’Arabia saudita. La presa di Bab el-Mandeb non prefigurerebbe insomma una recrudescenza degli attacchi contro navi commerciali in risposta alla distruzione israeliana di Gaza. Restano però pesantissime incognite rispetto al futuro di una rotta che da più di tre anni è ormai azzoppata dalle tensioni internazionali e, seppur in ripresa, registra volumi quasi dimezzati rispetto a quelli precedenti la crisi in Medio Oriente. Continua intanto lo stallo nello stretto di Hormuz, sull’altro lato della penisola arabica. E con l’avanzata degli Houthi lungo la costa occidentale dello Yemen si rafforza pure la posizione negoziale dell’Iran nella contesa con gli Stati Uniti, per i quali si manifesta lo spettro di un doppio collo di bottiglia. Gli Houthi già controllavano una vasta parte dello Yemen settentrionale e la città portuale di Hodeidah, ma ancora nessuna area affacciata direttamente sullo strategico stretto di Bab el-Mandeb. Adesso sono entrati a Mocha e hanno preso possesso delle isole poste nel bel mezzo del passaggio. La pressione diventa diretta e attuabile con armamenti a più corto raggio rispetto a missili e droni. Le conseguenze sui traffici di greggio sono sotto gli occhi di ogni automobilista. Al crollo dei passaggi delle petroliere via Hormuz e alla nuova geopolitica di Bab el-Mandeb, si somma infatti anche il danneggiamento della East-West Pipeline in Arabia Saudita. L’oleodotto aveva assunto un’importanza straordinaria proprio per bypassare Hormuz e portare greggio verso Yanbu e il Mar Rosso, salpando poi verso Suez ed evitando il passaggio via nave per Bab el-Mandeb. L’infrastruttura è stata danneggiata nei giorni scorsi da un attacco di droni partiti dall’Iraq e ci vorrà oltre un mese per ripristinarla, sempre al netto di ulteriori incursioni. Per l’esportazione di petrolio saudita, le ridondanze sembrano essere finite: un’emergenza cui Riad dovrà presto rispondere, convincendo i freddi Stati Uniti a intervenire anche su questo teatro oppure accettando obtorto collo una qualche fase negoziale. Mostrano invece fiducia compagnie come Maersk e Hapag-Lloyd che hanno appena annunciato un’estensione dei servizi via Suez. Le navi registrate attraverso Bab el-Mandeb negli ultimi giorni confermano la media di 27 al giorno, in linea con quella riscontrabile prima dell’ultimo attacco houthi. Nel mondo dei container, la percezione è insomma di un rischio non generalizzato ma selettivo, nei confronti di specifici armatori e interessi commerciali, a cominciare da quelli sauditi. E c’è da chiedersi quale sarà la linea di Msc, caduta oggetto di bombardamento alle proprie navi da parte degli houthi, ma che a fine agosto ha a sua volta comunicato un aumento dei transiti di Suez. E così, almeno per il momento, tiene la ripresa del canale egiziano, anche se Lloyd’s List sottolinea come l’attuale stato d’animo degli armatori reggerà solo finché il targeting resta percepito come circoscritto. Saranno gli houthi (da capire quale sarà il peso di Teheran nelle loro scelte) a decidere se si potrà consolidare o meno il trend di miglioramento in atto a Suez. I volumi di traffico restano ancora del 39% sotto i livelli precrisi, ma per Lloyd’s List viaggiano da inizio estate sopra le 1.200 unità al mese: +28% di navi e +43% di tonnellaggio rispetto all’estate 2025. Ben diverso il quadro di Hormuz, dove nel fine settimana del 12-13 settembre i transiti di navi commerciali sono tornati al di sotto della decina contro le 125 unità registrate il giorno prima dello scoppio della guerra Usa-Iran. Il dato non comprende le navi che attraversano lo stretto con i sistemi Ais spenti sotto protezione americana. La tensione nel quadrante è altissima e due settimane fa la marina americana ha comunicato di aver distrutto tre tanker iraniani, come ritorsione per attacchi subiti da parte dei militari di Teheran. Il governo degli ayatollah non pare nel frattempo avanzare in alcun modo nelle trattative con l’Oman per determinare i costi da imputare agli armatori per la sicurezza dell’attraversamento di Hormuz, finendo così per introdurre una forma di pedaggio ammantata da qualche eufemismo.

La compagnia danese, insidiata da Grimaldi nei traffici con la Turchia, raddoppia da ottobre verso il porto egiziano Trieste – Sono in continuo fermento i traffici inframediterranei del porto di Trieste. Mentre i semirimorchi di Grimaldi trovano nuovi spazi di stoccaggio grazie al piazzale da 300 posti appena ultimato da Hhla accanto alla Piattaforma logistica, Dfds annuncia la decisione di piazzare una seconda nave settimanale sulla rotta fra lo scalo giuliano e quello egiziano di Damietta. Scrive su Linkedin il vicepresidente di Dfds, Lars Hoffmann: “Dopo sforzi straordinari dei nostri team, il supporto di partner fedeli, porti, agenti e governi, siamo pronti ad aumentare la nostra capacità e la rotazione”. Il servizio è cominciato nell’autunno 2024, con una specializzazione nel trasporto di fresco e in particolare di frutta e verdura. Ora una nuova nave garantirà una seconda toccata settimanale nei due porti: l’avvio è previsto per ottobre.